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<unlmtd>
goibhniu: we never made a proper presentation, but we will, its on the table for our company launch
<unlmtd>
the peak-ish price was based on using manpower to create electricity
<unlmtd>
a very fit man can put out at most 500 Whrs a day if he does it as a full time job
<unlmtd>
anyway, not sure if youre even reading this
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<unlmtd>
we figured it was the most underpriced commodity, and we are looking at the biggest inflation shock of our history
<unlmtd>
so tho 50-100x is fairly conservative in that context. for all we know itll go to infinity (meaning the end of humanity :P)
<unlmtd>
the computer age is only in its late infancy, so demand isnt going down
<unlmtd>
and the production will decrease by about the same factor
<unlmtd>
100x
<unlmtd>
at least
<unlmtd>
if those numbers are even half-right, the electric car is the most insane idea ever
<unlmtd>
I ride a bicycle, as you can imagine
<unlmtd>
I had a chart showing the ratio of our energy inputs by categories. musle power used to make up the vast majority, and now its barely readable on the chart. since we now have less energy ressources (far less) then back then, its only logical that the muscle ration will eventually dominate again
<unlmtd>
thomas malthus was totally right, but we had yet to refine kerosene out of oil, a little while after he published his essay. so he was off by about 200 years
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<unlmtd>
1913: UK coal production peaks
<unlmtd>
1914: Start of the Great War
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<unlmtd>
as soon as our energy input peaks again, there will be another major world war, which inevitably accelerates the shortages
<unlmtd>
and this time there are hundreds of nuclear reactors spread arount the world, which will inevitably be damaged or lack maintenance and fail
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<unlmtd>
so the next century will be highly radioactive, and if humanity survives our ancestors will think of our generations as the most evil/stupid to have ever existed
<unlmtd>
no wonder: the wefaceboogle machine has hijacked our consciousness
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<makefu>
unlmtd: what is with the energy of the sun which crashes down every second onto the earth? it is mostly unused but the potential energy is huge
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<makefu>
also other forces of nature are almost completely unused and it is not like we can `use them up` or anything.
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<unlmtd>
makefu: by energy, I mean useful energy, and not the vague all-encompassing 'everything is energy'
<unlmtd>
its difficult to use the sun's radiation
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<unlmtd>
im not sure what you mean by 'other forces .. completly unused'
<unlmtd>
we burning everything we can get our hands on
<unlmtd>
weve hunted/fished more than half the land/sea life already
<unlmtd>
burning/plunder is 99+ % of our energy input
<unlmtd>
its a numbers game
<unlmtd>
solar panels make no sense, theyre either too far to be useful, or they take up sunlight which we need for agriculture
<unlmtd>
and fully dammed rivers lose too much precious sea life population to be economical
<unlmtd>
so you have small scale hydro and wind
<unlmtd>
which means 99.5% decrease in electricy production
<unlmtd>
while at the same time we see the rise of the crypto-connected society, so its still useful to buy electricity at 10-20 USD per KWh
<unlmtd>
its feasible to use 1-3w to do crypto-communication, so that's 25 to 75 Wh per day, which at 20 USD per KWh is 0.50 to 1.50 USD per day. put a little light on top and you get 2 USD per day per capita
<goibhniu>
sorry unlmtd, we had an urgent issue to take care of here, just after I asked for more info
<unlmtd>
ha no worries
<unlmtd>
I hadnt discussed this topic in a long time, it makes too many people uncomfortable
<goibhniu>
my understanding is that the main problem with solar at the moment is storage
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<goibhniu>
and this idea of using an electric car for power storage sounds nice
<unlmtd>
main problem is manufacture
<unlmtd>
theyre extremly polluting
<goibhniu>
electric cars or PV?
<unlmtd>
solar is very uninteresting
<unlmtd>
PV
<goibhniu>
oh
<unlmtd>
you can imagine what I think of electric transport
<unlmtd>
im very bullish on bicycles
<unlmtd>
and tricycles
<goibhniu>
do you think the production of solar panels could be cleaned up?
<unlmtd>
can you read what I posted earlier?
<unlmtd>
the solar panels take up room which you want to use for agriculture
<unlmtd>
s/room/sunlight
<goibhniu>
not if they're on your roof (and you have a house)
<unlmtd>
the roof is prime spot for growing food
<unlmtd>
food is going to be a major issue
<goibhniu>
you don't need that much land to grow enough food for a household
<unlmtd>
lol
<goibhniu>
less humans would be good though
<unlmtd>
dont worry, less humans is very much coming
<goibhniu>
I believe you can feed 20 families with an acre of land
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<goibhniu>
well, I heard that on a TV show yesterday :D
<unlmtd>
so take a place like HK and see how much land they need
<unlmtd>
the food has to be within walking distance or itll take more energy to transport it than it gives when eaten
<goibhniu>
yeah, so moving out of cities would be an option
<unlmtd>
it takes several generations to create a fully alive top-soil
<unlmtd>
and theyve all been covered with concrete
<unlmtd>
were royaly fucked
<goibhniu>
I don't believe it takes so long to create soil
<goibhniu>
hrm ... maybe I'm confusing that with improving soil ... I dunno about creating soil on a desert
<unlmtd>
im talking about 20 feet deep *living* soil you find in old forests
<unlmtd>
it isnt dirt
<goibhniu>
right, but you don't need that to grow plants
<goibhniu>
what do you think about permaculture?
<unlmtd>
read into it, youll understand what im saying
<unlmtd>
permaculture is the only way
<unlmtd>
but your main problem with agriculture isnt even soil
<goibhniu>
Thanks for explaining. Sure, I see this as a possible future, but I wouldn't say it's inevitable.
<unlmtd>
water
<unlmtd>
iv talked about the 'humanity is gone' scenario; thats the only scenario iv mentionned which can be avoided, the rest is already done
<unlmtd>
its alraedy in our face
<unlmtd>
just look and youll see it
<goibhniu>
well, I just moved to an eco-village :D
<unlmtd>
radiation might be a problem depending on how things unfold, I prefer the southern hemisphere for that reason, but I like being around people, so I found a middle ground
<unlmtd>
ahh cool
<goibhniu>
thanks! You're also welcome to call over any time. I've loads of room.
<unlmtd>
awesome
<unlmtd>
we know someone there I think
<goibhniu>
haha
<unlmtd>
small world
<goibhniu>
it's crazy how often that happens
<goibhniu>
who?
<goibhniu>
there's a guy there doing great research on farming techniques for the average sized family garden
<unlmtd>
I cant remember his name, we met him in thailand, we left a bunch of silver coins in our hotel room and he brought it to us.
<unlmtd>
so we gave him one and thanked him
<goibhniu>
cool :D
<unlmtd>
neway gotta run, talk again some day
<makefu>
unlmtd: sorry, was at lunch. regarding 'its difficult to use the sun's radiation' -> the current solar panel technology has an efficiency of 22% which is already quite a lot. other forces are for example the tides and wind. i think there are a lot opportunities. of course right now it does not look good with regards on how the human scavanges the resources at hand
<goibhniu>
o/
<unlmtd>
makefu: youve been sold on pipe dreams
<goibhniu>
yeah, tidal would be great in Ireland
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<unlmtd>
the sea will tear it all apart
<unlmtd>
lol
<unlmtd>
not just water; *salt* water...
<unlmtd>
ahahah
<unlmtd>
were a generation of reality-illiterates
<makefu>
unlmtd: these are not pipe dreams at all. for example in iceland 85% of the energy is geothermal
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<makefu>
(for households)
<unlmtd>
what were doing now is no indacation of what is sustainable
<makefu>
73% is hydropower and 27% is geothermal overall
<unlmtd>
lets look at iceland's geothermal energy production in 50 years
<unlmtd>
;)
<makefu>
anyway it is contrary to what you said saying everything is just a hallucination
<makefu>
i also think that you overestimate the place humanity has in this world. there are forces just so unimaginably huge compared to what we need.
<goibhniu>
I agree it's good to prepare for things getting worse, but we should keep looking for solutions too.
<goibhniu>
so many things are ridiculously more efficient nowadays ... LED lights, microwave ovens, heat-pumps, class-d amplifiers
<makefu>
unlmtd: i think someting along the lines of 'the last question' by isaac asimov will happen instead if humanity manages not to kill itself before ( http://www.multivax.com/last_question.html )
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<unlmtd>
goibhniu: you make it sound like 'getting prepared for the worse' is not a solution .. ? Im confused by what you wrote
<unlmtd>
I dont have time to list all the things were solving overe here
<unlmtd>
Iv never met anyone who talks about LEDs as much as me, but water is the one thing I really obssess about
<unlmtd>
and makefu is putting words in my mouth, I dont need to discuss with someone like that
<unlmtd>
he's going to get a big reality check
<unlmtd>
geothermal and big hydro has a negative return on investment
<unlmtd>
besides, big hydro is criminal
<makefu>
unlmtd: sorry, you are right - this is not what you said. i really appreciate your concerns - i also think that the resource debt we are taking will eventually crash down on us
<makefu>
however i think it will be less drastic than you describe it. but maybe you will be right in the end
<shlevy>
sorear: See, it's not all Nix all the time here ;)
<goibhniu>
unlmtd: the one thing we can be certain about, is that we don't know what the future will hold
<unlmtd>
makefu: well, ill give you credit for catching it
<unlmtd>
I know what the future doesnt hold: business as usual
<goibhniu>
no you don't
<goibhniu>
I think it weakens your point to present this scenario as self-evident
<goibhniu>
it's totally possible that we fumble along, making incremental improvements and survive
<goibhniu>
it's hard to believe we haven't nuked ourselves yet
<unlmtd>
it is self-evident - weve *already* destroyed more than half of the biomass on the planet
<unlmtd>
this isnt the future
<unlmtd>
its the past
<unlmtd>
so we havent actually sustained the population without tapping into the planet's accumulated capital
<unlmtd>
which means that when there isnt enough of that capital left, the population will meet the available ressources. otherwise you have to defeat the laws of scarcity
<goibhniu>
I agree we should take action. But I think this is a bad message. Even though there is truth to it, it sounds insane, because nobody knows the future. It also encourages people to give up.
<unlmtd>
Im already taking action
<unlmtd>
this isnt a message, im just pointing things out which are already here, im now predicting the future im describing the present
<goibhniu>
sure, but if you want to influence others to participate, I'd say there are better ways to communicate
<unlmtd>
im not* predicting
<goibhniu>
you said with certainty that the price of electricity will soon be 50 what it is today
<unlmtd>
this is my role, I put it in people's face
<goibhniu>
that could happen, or something entirely different could happen
<unlmtd>
I said our models gave us that figure
<goibhniu>
saying it with certainty will cause people to ignore you, or worse accept it as truth and give up
<goibhniu>
models are not reality
<unlmtd>
like predicting where a canon ball lands based on its current position and momentum
<goibhniu>
that's fine for a very simple system
<goibhniu>
this is extremely complex
<unlmtd>
sure but models are all that you have
<unlmtd>
you cant experience reality directly, you can only build models to represent it to your limited mind
<goibhniu>
but you shouldn't present them as fact
<unlmtd>
I didnt
<unlmtd>
I said 'our models'
<unlmtd>
the facts I presented are facts, like the fact that at least half the biomass is gone
<unlmtd>
and way more than half the clean water ways have been polluted, and way more than half the good arable lands been driven by monoculture into dust bowls which only still produce using chemicals
<unlmtd>
and most cities have destroyed almost all of their good soil
<unlmtd>
these are all facts: these are the cannon ball's current position and momentum
<unlmtd>
ok fine: maybe aliens show up with lots of food and feed us when we run into a wall
<unlmtd>
the uncomfortable feeling you're talking about is one of the first emotional stage of drastic change
<unlmtd>
talking about those things gives me more motivation
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<unlmtd>
but you can come spend some time here with me, youll see all I talk about is getting water, collecting it, creating systems to capture it, etc
<unlmtd>
the electricity thing comes up because its the most pronounced price difference of all the commodities we looked at. in that way its noteworthy
<unlmtd>
in our models*
<goibhniu>
it's certainly a good thing to talk about
<goibhniu>
I didn't realise PV panels caused so much pollution. I must look into that later.
<unlmtd>
biotechnology is where the clever will investigate, not building more giant monolithic steel structure under the ocean so we can power our war machines and drive them around to go nowhere at criminal speeds
<unlmtd>
there's only one solution: we have to grow the food we need around us, so we *dont need* to waste all our precious energy zipping around like demons all the time
<unlmtd>
the reason PV is so hyped is because, to most people, it looks like magic, and the best way to avoid facing the harsh reality of our situation is to fall back to magical thinking "science will find a way". we love electric cars because they feel magical, like flying carpets. *that* is the smoke screen; the kind of arguments that makefu was trying to make, are the poisons that keep us from facing the situation exactly the
<unlmtd>
way it is, without hiding behind pipe-dreams, 'castles in the skies'.
<goibhniu>
yeah, I agree we should all be trying to go in that direction
<goibhniu>
good point, it distracts people from making real changes
<unlmtd>
and dont forget, it was the 'miracles of modern science' that made it possible for us to get in this mess. it's foolish to look for science to solve the problems it actually made possible
<unlmtd>
of course, we shouldn renouce our capicity to innovate; thats our only salvation
<unlmtd>
if we used our mind to create more life instead of sucking all the blood out of what life is left here, we could create a truly beautiful world
<goibhniu>
ah well, is it science that caused the problem, or the business model that has driven science
<unlmtd>
but now we live in a war, this is what a total world war looks like: everyone is a criminal, living off the bones of his neighbors, so my main goal is to bring back the *real* rule of law. I think thats one of the greatest potentials of the web 3.0
<goibhniu>
oh?
<unlmtd>
science didnt really create the problem, but it gave us the power to create the problem
<unlmtd>
like they said in the 'crypto manifesto
<unlmtd>
it allows information to flow about what the people driving society are really up to, and its the first time we can really have free speech, since its now possible to speak anonymously
<unlmtd>
so this is all coming to do good I think
<goibhniu>
what do you mean by the real rule of law?
<unlmtd>
the blockchain, matrix, ipfs
<unlmtd>
anyway, gtg, itss been a long time
<unlmtd>
google 'The law by bastiat'
<unlmtd>
cheers
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<goibhniu>
cool, cheers!
<gchristensen>
unlmtd: you know this channel isn't about Alexander Nix
<goibhniu>
lol
<pstn>
Maybe when he's out of prison and broke and looking for a job we could give him a costume and make him our mascot?
<gchristensen>
please no :D
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<gchristensen>
anyone using android proper available to answer some questions?
<MichaelRaskin>
What specifically you mean?
<gchristensen>
well I guess what I mean is Google's Android
<gchristensen>
which is the opposite of what I said